China's Youth in Perspective
Understanding China's youth is key to understanding China's future. From the tangping (躺平) trend advocating "laying flat" in response to society's problems to concerns over involution (内卷) causing decreased opportunities, China's young people appear deluged by problems. Considering this demographic's importance, we decided to take a look at how China's youth sees their personal aspirations, China's economic situation, and the world.
Between July 3-25, we surveyed 1,050 Chinese respondents as part of our China from the Ground Up project, oversampling responses from the youth between the age of 18 and 30 to better understand how they compare to their elders. Overall, the picture we found wasn't one of a generation seeking to lie flat, but which shows interesting divisions on key social and political questions.
China's youth want to marry, but young men are more eager than women to have large families
One area we wanted to check out was young people's attitudes towards marriage and children. Across East Asia, low fertility rates are a serious problem: China's rate of 1 birth per woman falls between Japan's 1.2 and South Korea's frighteningly low 0.72. In other countries like South Korea, a "4B" movement has sought to boycott men. How do gender relations fare in China according to our survey?
In our sample, slightly over half of the under 30s were already married. Among those who weren't, over 70% intended to marry at some point, showing the enduring popularity of traditional familial structures. However, twice as many women intended not to marry as compared with young men, showing real gender divides under the surface. These differences are also present in intentions for the number of children, with about 5% more men wanting 2 or more children than women. Interestingly, the number of women who intend to have zero children is lower than the number who intend not to marry, showing a small but real preference for non-traditional family structures.
Figure 1a. Relationship Status Among Youth
Figure 1b. Marriage Aspirations Among Youth
Figure 2a. Marriage Aspirations by Gender
Figure 2b. Desired Number of Children by Gender
The youth are less economically optimistic and see persistent injustice in the system
Another key issue for Chinese youth pertains to employment and the economic system. With connections ever more important for economic advancement and involution leading to decreasing opportunities with intense competition, there's a lot to be nervous about. When viewed in isolation, most Chinese youth seem optimistic: over 86% are confident in China's economy. However, when compared with older Chinese citizens, signs of relative concern are apparent, with 23% fewer young respondents indicating the highest level of confidence when compared to older respondents.
Figure 3. Economic Confidence by Age Group
These differences are also apparent in how they evaluate the fairness of the economic system as a whole. Chinese youth are substantially less likely than their elders to agree with the statement that a person's wealth or poverty is a result of their own actions or that the free market system is best for China. They're also more likely to want more government intervention to reduce the wealth gap and promote key industries.
Figure 4a. Views on Economic Justice by Age Group
Figure 4b. Views on Government Intervention by Age Group
Politically, China's youth are no doves, but are not as hawkish as their elders
The final area we examined in this survey pertained to the political opinions of China's youth. Given that they could be impacted substantially by the outbreak of military conflict, we thought it valuable to ask them about Taiwan and China's voice in international politics. When asked whether China should defend national unity and territorial integrity at all costs, they were just as hawkish as their older compatriots, with just over 50% strongly agreeing that China should.
However, when asked if China should achieve unification through force, both groups were tempered on the question, with young people even less supportive of the idea. Perhaps this is unsurprising given what age range would be likely to serve in such a war. Similarly, however, young people were less likely to agree that China should have the largest voice in global affairs and that the U.S. is currently in decline, showing an overall slightly more moderate international attitude than their elders.
Figure 5. Views on Taiwan and International Politics by Age Group
When it comes to politics at home, Chinese youth are a lot like their elders. They largely support the local and central government, a finding consistent across most groups for the majority of the time polls have been conducted in China. Surprisingly, even retrospective support for the Shanghai lockdowns during COVID is quite high, with the majority agreeing they were necessary for the nation's interest. While young people were pivotal in the White Paper protests, the anti-lockdown sentiments that fueled their mobilization appear to have faded in the years since.
Figure 6. Views on Domestic Politics by Age Group
What do China's Youth want?
Overall, we've tried to provide a nuanced picture of China's youth. While gender conflicts are real, the divides aren't so broad that they can't be overcome. Economic optimism and faith in the system is lower than among their elders, but still relatively high in a global comparison. Finally, while they're likely to be less assertive in their foreign policy preferences, on no questions were they more dovish than not.
What, then, do young people want? We leave you with two word clouds below which show the most popular answers to two questions we asked of our survey respondents: what do you most want in the next five years of your life, and what do you think are the most dangerous challenges confronting the world over the next five years. As is likely true across the world, the answers show young people concerned with work, health, economic freedom, and family at home and worried about climate change, AI, and wars abroad.
Figure 7. Word Cloud of "What do you most want in the next five years of your life?"
Figure 8. Word Cloud of "Most dangerous challenges confronting the world over the next five years"
Authors
Harris Doshay, Assistant Director of Research and Writing, 21st Century China Center, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy.
Young Yang, Research Data Analyst, China Data Lab at the 21st Century China Center, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy.
Yan Liu, Political Science Ph.D. Student, UC San Diego
Mingpu Xiao, Political Science Ph.D. Student, UC San Diego