China’s rise has been accompanied by a substantial expansion of its global footprint and influence. Many observers view China’s global influence as rapidly growing, even surpassing that of the U.S. overall. However, in this blog, we offer a more nuanced perspective by analyzing data across various domains, specifically indicators of economic, strategic, and diplomatic influence.
While China is undeniably a rising global power, with significant influence in trade and certain regions, our analysis reveals that it lags behind the U.S. in several critical areas, particularly in global strategic and diplomatic influence. Here are two key takeaways:
China Pulls Ahead of the U.S. in Trade While Falling Behind in Strategic and Global Development Areas.
China Lags in Post-COVID Diplomacy on the World Stage.
In the political arena, we have compiled two sets of public diplomacy data. First, using Pew Research Global Attitudes Surveys , we analyzed the difference between pre-COVID and post-COVID views of China and the U.S. in 24 countries that span every continent. While the data has major gaps in its coverage, it offers a useful metric for global views of U.S. and China.
We construct a favorability map, based on the Pew Research survey data, that shows changes in favorable views of U.S. (Figure 6a) and China (Figure 6b) between 2019 and 2023. The maps illustrate significant changes in global attitudes toward the U.S. and China before and after COVID-19, showing that views of the U.S. have improved, while those of China have become more negative. It is not surprising that China's favorability decreased in Canada, Europe, and U.S. allies in the Pacific; however, it is noteworthy that perceptions of China also declined in Latin American countries like Argentina and Brazil, despite strong trade relations.
In contrast, views of the U.S. have significantly improved overall, with the exceptions of Hungary and Italy, where favorable opinions dropped from 66% to 44% and from 62% to 60% in 2023, respectively.
Second, we collected data on U.S. and Chinese presidential visits to other countries dating back to 2010 (Figure 7: select Balance of Presidential Visits and then press the play button at the bottom to look at changes in Chinese and U.s. presidential visists overtime). From 2010 to 2020, foreign visits by both presidents were quite common. However, following an initial slowdown due to the COVID pandemic and a change in administration, U.S. presidential visits to other countries rebounded. For instance, in the post-COVID period, the balance of visits in both India and Egypt shifted, with Biden making more visits than Xi Jinping, reversing the earlier trend that favored Chinese visits.
Our data shows that while China has expanded its global footprint, particularly in international trade and investment, its overall global presence still lags behind the U.S. according to many importants metric we have examined in this blog.
Despite perceptions that China's global influence is growing rapidly, possibly surpassing the U.S., this is true only in certain areas. In key indicators like strategic and diplomatic influence, China continues to fall short.
Moreover, the past four years since the pandemic have further diminished China's political and strategic standing on the global stage, while the U.S. has experienced stronger rebound and maintains significant global influence.
Alex Li, Doctoral Student of Political Science, University of Oregon. Class of 2024, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy
Harris Doshay, Assistant Director of Research and Writing, 21st Century China Center, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy
Weiyi Shi, Nonresident Scholar, 21st Century China Center, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy
Young Yang, Research Data Analyst, China Data Lab at the 21st Century China Center, UC San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy